This week’s increasingly detailed coverage of earthquake and tsunami destruction from the northeast region of Japan made it difficult to foresee auto production returning to normal on the schedule several major automakers presented. Today, speculation the region’s devastation is more pervasive than automakers admit may be confirmed as both Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda Motor Co. Ltd. extended production shutdowns.

Toyota’s statement this morning tersely said suspended vehicle production at all assembly plants in Japan, slated to resume today, is being extended to Saturday. The company-wide shutdown originally was scheduled to end March 17. And the company left open the likelihood for further extensions, saying, “A decision on when vehicle production will resume in Japan has yet to be made.”

Honda, which has a concentration of key facilities in the destruction zone, last week said vehicle production would cease until March 20, but now reportedly has extended the shutdown for another full week. Honda touched off a wave of speculation about the disaster’s likely longer-term effect on some automakers’ production when it last week informed U.S. dealers the company was temporarily blocking orders for Japan-sourced vehicles such as the Fit subcompact and several Acura models.

Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. said Monday that suppliers had requested assistance, parts supply remains a concern and “our plants, except for the Iwaki engine plant, will be partially operational.” A clue about the region’s apparently still-unstable situation came in Nissan’s statement, however: “As for the Iwaki engine plant, with aftershocks still heavily impacting the region and infrastructure reestablishment still continuing, restoration is expected to take longer than the other plants.”

Suppliers Silent
Japan’s close-knit and highly integrated supplier sector has not been forthcoming with particulars of how widely the disaster has impacted the country’s supplier network and, just as important, whether damage to roads and railways will take an extended toll on the just-in-time parts-delivery model the industry’s suppliers have made so famous.

Also still in question is the ability of needed raw materials to come into Japan and be moved about the affected region. The nation may for some time need to prioritize imports for humanitarian needs, leaving manufacturers of non-essential goods in a secondary role. And the supply lines themselves have been inescapably lengthened: several ports in the disaster region are extensively damaged and are out of commission – some perhaps for years.

Downstream Impact Increasing
With the bulk of the major Japanese automakers’ U.S. sales accounted for by vehicles assembly in North America, most have downplayed the disaster’s potential impact on North American vehicle supplies, but as assembly cutbacks continue and the ability of suppliers to maintain consistent deliveries remains in question, the once-widespread confidence of minimal effect in the U.S appears to be softening.

Toyota said today with a hint of what may be trouble to come, “so far the impact remains limited. All 13 North American vehicle and engine plants are running normally, although overtime has been curtailed to conserve parts that come from suppliers in Japan. Regarding dealerships in the U.S., inventories remain generally good.”

General Motors Co., a seemingly unlikely victim, last week suspended production of Chevrolet and GMC midsize pickups at a plant in Louisiana due to shortages of an undisclosed Japan-sourced component. This week, the shutdown rippled to the Tonawanda, NY, engine plant that builds engines for the pickups. Even Volvo Cars, owned by India’s Tata Motors, now is feeling the pressure. With several key suppliers in the disaster region, the New York Times reported, with a company executive saying Volvo was “preparing ourselves for a shortage” of components.

Courtesy of autoobserver.com