Can the world accommodate 2 billion drivers?

It took roughly 100 years for a billion cars to populate the world, but in just the next 10 years, that number is expected to double. “Two Billion Cars,” written by professor Daniel Sperling along with with policy analyst Deborah Gordon, examines how the world can accommodate this rapid influx of new drivers and vehicles and what policies should be enacted to mitigate the environmental and energy security impact.

Sperling belongs to an elite group of policy wonks who have also appeared on “The Daily Show with Jon Stewart.” In addition to penning “Two Billion Cars,” he’s a professor of engineering and environmental science and policy at the University of California at Davis and the founding director of UC Davis’ Institute of Transportation Studies.

KickingTires spoke with Sperling about the current policies and the challenges the world continues to face since the book’s publication in 2009.

KickingTires: What is the state of the auto industry right now after the past two turbulent years?

Dan Sperling: It is one of the largest industries in the world, and it was going to become healthy sooner or later. I want to stay away from commenting on any automaker in particular, but there’s a bigger picture at work here. For instance, GM is making lots of money in China. The picture of the auto industry is still changing as we speak.

KT: How do innovative, new vehicles like the Chevy Volt and the Nissan Leaf strike you? Do these represent the beginnings of the shift you talk about in your book?

DS: These advanced battery vehicles are just a tiny part of the business. They are much more important from a halo perspective because they are going to lose money for a long time. But they’re setting the stage. Gasoline-electric hybrids are going to become a much bigger part of the mix because of the new aggressive fuel economy standards. The ability [of automakers] to introduce more efficient vehicle technology is the key to meeting these 2016 standards. Clearly, hybrids will play a large role in that transformation.

KT: While hybrids, plug-ins, electric vehicles and fuel-efficient small cars may be good for us (like eating our broccoli), they certainly don’t sell in large numbers compared with traditional midsize cars and SUVs. These vehicles have also seen sales rebound since gas prices fell back significantly from $4 per gallon. How do you reconcile American consumer sentiment with your thesis that U.S. car culture and love of gas-guzzling vehicles must change?

DS: A couple of things are going on with this. There’s a shift related to demographics and a shift related to general attitudes and behavior. The baby boomer generation went way beyond having to just transport kids around, and they wanted to have the sporty vehicles that could still accommodate family demands. That was a big part of the SUV market. As the baby boomers get older, that demand, as well as the demand for pickup trucks, will lessen. The younger generation is less interested in cars than in the past. The car is not the symbol it used to be. Young people are more absorbed with digital technology than they are with cars. Think about something like the iPad: Now being in a vehicle and not being responsible for driving is more appealing. Car culture has reached its zenith as a love affair. On top of that, we have policy. The federal government and California are leading the way with aggressive fuel economy and greenhouse gas standards while car companies are under pressure to meet them. These two forces are leading to a transformation.

KT: If you’re correct about the direction of the auto industry, what can consumers — say, KickingTires readers — expect to see on dealer lots by the year 2020?

DS: They’re going to see a lot more hybrids, some more diesels and overall vehicles that are far more efficient. By 2020, we’ll even start seeing fuel-cell cars. Vehicles will become a little smaller but right now, regulations are footprint-based, so there’s not much incentive to downsize vehicles. The incentive is for weight reduction and efficiency.

KT: What role can consumers play in changing car culture — specifically, consumers that have to drive?

DS: The new EPA labels are a great example; consumers should pay attention to that. Consumers can even come out ahead just by buying a four-cylinder vehicle instead of a six-cylinder. People always come out way ahead just by buying a less powerful vehicle. Forget about energy security and climate change. Even if you set those reasons aside, pure economics means it’s better to buy fuel-efficient [models]. You’re also sending a signal to car companies by voting with your dollar. It’s important to think about what car you really need. Are you buying something that can go off-road because you make one or two trips to the mountains each year? Then it’s a matter of energy security or climate change, whichever issue worries you more.

KT: Grade the Obama administration and the current Congress on its automotive and transportation policies so far.

DS: Actually, the one thing it’s done the best is dealing with cars. They deserve an A on cars by adopting the California CAFE standards, and [President Barack Obama] told EPA to move ahead to adopt more aggressive standards for 2025. They’re also pursuing standards for heavy-duty trucks and working on electric vehicles with a lot of grants and loan guarantees. So on vehicles, an A. On fuel — low-carbon fuels, specifically — they haven’t done much with that or in terms of restraining how much driving there is. California passed a law to reduce driving and land-use sprawl.

KT: Is that something you could see the federal government enacting for the entire country?

DS: Definitely. The California Air Resources Board will adopt targets for all cities to reduce driving and land use, and a version of the California law has been in the draft of the transportation bill that’s been kicking around Congress. Eventually, that approach will make it into law and federal regulation. It’s just a matter of when.

KT: If you were king for a day, what is the one policy you would implement concerning passenger cars and trucks?

DS: I’d like to see standards put in place for heavy-duty trucks, a carbon tax, a feebate program — revenue neutral, where you have a fee for gas guzzlers and a rebate for fuel-efficient vehicles — and a low-carbon fuel standard. There is no one silver bullet. We need a portfolio of policies just like a portfolio of technologies.

KT: The tone of your book is very optimistic that with some policy changes, the world can find a way to accommodate 2 billion cars. What happens if governments, automakers and consumers refuse to adopt these changes or move too slowly?

DS: There are going to be changes. It’s only a matter of how fast it happens. In any scenario, bad things are going to happen. Things are going to get worse, in terms of world oil supply and climate change. The challenge is to make sure those bad things are less bad, and they don’t become catastrophic.

Courtesy of Blogs.cars.com

Fifty years of continuous production for any model is enough by itself to celebrate. But when you add in the fact that the Ford E-Series has been America’s best-selling full-size van for 31 consecutive years, it’s cause for an extra-large celebration.

The E-Series 2011 product lineup includes a commemorative 50th anniversary edition with a full suite of Ford-exclusive, state-of-the-art technologies like Ford Work Solutions™, SYNC® voice-activated communications and entertainment system and a Navigation System with HD Radio™.

Econoline was introduced for the 1961 model year as a commercial vehicle in three bodystyles. The Club Wagon line soon followed, designed for customers looking for a personal-use vehicle and light towing. Since the time, the E-Series line has thrived as Ford offered product variations to meet specific customer needs.

Here, a few highlights from E-Series’ storied history:

1961: Econoline is introduced for commercial customers with three bodystyles: Delivery Van, Pickup and Station Bus

1962: Club Wagon introduced as passenger and load-carrying vehicle with light towing capabilities

1963: Seat belts introduced as an option

1965: SuperVan (extended, bustle-back model) introduced midyear

1968: Second-generation Econoline vans available in three series: E-100, E-200 and E-300 (air conditioning offered for the first time)

1971: Econoline Parcel Delivery Van added to lineup

1975: Third-generation Econoline debuts with body-on-frame construction, higher gross vehicle weight ratings, improved interior package and wider selection of engines. This design was offered in the same basic configuration for the next 17 years

1976: Factory-customized, youth-oriented Cruising Van debuts with mod paint schemes, carpeted interior and porthole panel windows

1978: Econoline chassis cab model debuts

1981: Higher payloads appear on most models

1983: Super Wagon reintroduced to lineup

1987: E-250 eight-passenger Club Wagon added

1992: Fourth-generation introduced – Van and Club Wagon; Chateau Wagon is named truck of the year by Motor Trend magazine

1995: Econoline attained leadership in virtually every aspect of the full-size van market with 48 percent share of its segment, 33 percent of the van conversion market, 90 percent of the Class C motor home conversion market, 40 percent of the parcel delivery van market (Econoline chassis), 90 percent of the ambulance market (Econoline commercial cutaway chassis) and 39 percent of the passenger van market (Club Wagon)

1997: New standard V6 engine offered along with the 6.8-liter V10

2001: E-Series name debuts in Ford literature, along with the E-150 Traveler van targeted for families

2005: Powertrain options now include V8, 6.0-liter Power Stroke V-8 turbo diesel and V10

2006: Last E-Series model produced at Lorain Assembly Plant in Ohio

2007: First E-Series model produced at Ohio Assembly Plant in Avon Lake

2008: E-Series debuts as strictly a commercial vehicle; features best-in-class capability, an improved chassis for better durability and handling, cargo security technologies and the return of the diesel engine option

2011: E-Series, America’s best-selling van for 31 years, celebrates its 50th anniversary by offering premium Ford-exclusive technology like SYNC® voice-activated communications and entertainment system and industry-exclusive Ford Work Solutions™. E-Series vans are available in E-150, E-250 Super Duty and E-350 Super Duty regular and extended-length configurations. Wagons are available in E-150 and E-350 Super Duty regular and E-350 Super Duty extended-length configurations.

Press release courtesy of Thefordstory.com

2011 Ford Edge

• 2011 Ford Edge has class-exclusive AdvanceTrac® with RSC® (Roll Stability Control™) standard, one of several technologies further enhancing the safety capability of the popular midsize crossover
• Traction control, Tire Pressure Monitoring System and available all-wheel drive also can bring peace of mind to customers
• Several class-exclusive driver assistance technologies available on 2011 Ford Edge include adaptive cruise control and collision warning with brake support and cross-traffic alert

The wealth of available class-exclusive features added to the 2011 Ford Edge include driver assistance technologies that bring peace of mind.

Leading the safety technology for the popular midsize crossover is Ford Motor Company’s exclusive AdvanceTrac with RSC. This electronic stability control system helps maintain a driver’s intended path by measuring side-to-side yaw through steering angle, lateral acceleration and yaw rate sensors and automatically making braking and throttle adjustments.

When wheel slip is sensed, AdvanceTrac reduces engine torque and applies selected brakes. RSC is an additional vehicle control software module that monitors and helps control vehicle roll rate.

“With class-exclusive safety technology and solid unibody construction, the 2011 Ford Edge will continue to be a leader in safety,” said Elaine Bannon, Edge chief engineer. “For families who place a premium on safety, the new Edge features several new available technologies that can help avoid an accident.”

New available driver assistance and convenience technologies added to the 2011 Ford Edge and how they help include:

• Adaptive cruise control allows the driver to set the vehicle’s cruising speed, using advanced radar technology to monitor traffic ahead and scan for slower vehicles. The system slows the vehicle to adapt for traffic conditions and maintain the preset distance between vehicles. Once traffic clears, the set speed returns. Gap distance settings can be customized from four predetermined options.
• Collision warning with brake support helps reduce speed, automatically pre-charges brakes, provides a red warning light on the windshield as well as an audible beep and engages an electronic brake assist system to help drivers stop more quickly when the system detects a collision is imminent.
• Blind Spot Information System (BLIS®) with cross-traffic alert is a feature that can help detect vehicles in blind spots during normal driving, as well as traffic approaching from the sides when reversing out of parking spots.
• MyKey® is designed to allow parents to encourage teenagers to drive safely and more fuel efficiently, and increase seat belt usage. The standard MyKey feature allows owners to designate keys that can limit the vehicle’s top speed, audio volume and other features.
• Rear view camera automatically engages when the vehicle is placed in reverse. The camera is located in the liftgate above the license plate, and video is shown on the available 8-inch center stack touch screen with an image providing vehicle centerline, rear bumper orientation and trajectory lines to relate an object’s proximity to the rear of the vehicle.
• Hill start assist helps keep the vehicle from rolling backward, making it easier to pull away when on a slope or hill. With the brake pedal pressed, if sensors detect the vehicle is on a slope, the system is automatically activated. Brake pressure is held in the braking system and the vehicle remains stationary on the slope for up to two seconds after the driver releases the brake pedal.

Press release from Media.ford.com